Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Understanding Market Trend

Understanding the Current Residential Real Estate Market Trends in Texas: A Step-by-Step Guide


If I am ever listing your property, or I am representing you as a buyer and you're a few months out from actually being able to buy then you will get a monthly market trend report from me. This is my in-depth report on the current market trends for residential real estate in CENTEX. In this guide I will walk you through the essential steps to read a monthly market report, providing valuable insights for both buyers and sellers, but really focusing on helping you to understand where I get the report and what goes into it before it comes to you. I also want to note that I am not a licensed professional in statistics, analytics or economics. If I don't say it, I will wish that I had further down the road.

Scope and Objectives

My monthly report aims to analyze key metrics over the past 30 days in order to prepare for the upcoming month. These metrics home prices, inventory levels, and sales trends, that collectively will offer a comprehensive overview of the residential real estate unique to your area of listing or interest in Texas.

Data Collection

For accurate and reliable information, I source the data from local real estate databases, government reports, and industry publications within Texas, ensuring that you get the latest insights into the market. Often times I will utilize NAR Realtors Property Resource®, MLS, National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) ,Texas Association or REALTORS® (TAR), Local Market Reports (LMR), and other verifiable public collection services. All of these work hand in hand, you can almost watch one feed the other over the course of the last 30 days. All of this information gets compiled together, analyzed, and categorized for specific areas of impact.

Market Overview

Let's start with a general overview of the residential real estate market in Texas. Explore the total number of properties, population growth, and economic factors that play a crucial role in shaping the real estate landscape. What does that mean though? This means that you look at how many properties were available, how many sold, how many are available at the end of the month and the average Days on Market (DOM). Next I look at the population, has it seen an increase and if so where is the largest increase and what is causing the increase. 
I have a listing currently in central Temple and it has recently picked up a lot of traffic, so has the neighborhood because of the new college year that just started. A lot of college students are looking to rent in my sellers area, so investors are looking to purchase rental properties. Some of my interactions were students that are looking to buy just to cut out renting entirely. That is great news for my seller, but that doesn't mean that all of Temple is experiencing the exact same increase in interest and traffic with these specific buyer needs/wants.

Economic factors can come from a range of things like median sales price of a single family residential home, to upcoming or new commercial zoning, city projects or an increase or decrease in the cost of living (COL). The factors are numerous, but I will dial it into specific categories that the industry relies on for the majority of forecasting.

Key Metrics to Analyze

Understanding how to interpret key metrics is essential. Keeping an eye on average and median home prices, inventory levels, days on market, and sales volume for a comprehensive understanding of the market.The numbers don't lie, if you pull accurate information you will have enough information to render an educated opinion.

Data Visualization

To make the information more digestible, I prefer to utilize charts, graphs, and tables. Visual representations help you identify trends and patterns effortlessly. Look for line charts depicting price trends and bar graphs indicating inventory levels. Now I will put the data into systems or use AI to generate nice materials based off of factual information. I do this to avoid human error, but mainly to get it to a level of simplicity that anybody can understand what is going on with the graphics.

Analysis of Trends

Now, let's delve into the data and analyze the trends. We'll provide insights into any notable changes, anomalies, or patterns observed in the market and discuss the factors influencing these trends. Every Friday I will pull a trend report and compare it to the week priors, noting anything that has changed and paying close attention to any drastic changes. Last week the average DOM of all homes that sold could have been 62, and this week they could have been 24 indicating newer properties moving faster, the median price could stay the same but the volume of homes could have decreased meaning that the supply is starting to thin out while there are still buyers that are buying indicating a Sellers market.

Regional Variations

Texas is diverse, and so are its real estate markets. Explore any regional variations within the state, as real estate trends can significantly differ between cities or regions. If you are a seller, I will focus on your neighborhood and city. Every city, neighborhood and county is different and you can never assume that 2 market areas will produce the same or even close to the same statistics and results.

Future Predictions

What does the future hold for the Texas real estate market? I will develop personal predictions and forecasts based on current trends, discussing potential factors amongst myself and other Agents that could impact the market in the coming months. Some of these impacts could be a holiday season, for example from Thanksgiving until the New Year has a had a long lasting and statistically large drop in activity and sales in the real estate market for CENTEX. PCS season coming up plays into this as well, when we get the bulk of Soldiers coming into the area, the market will see the impact and change again.


This was a brief overview of how I generate market reports and use them to predict the upcoming month(s) for my personal real estate goals. By no means am I an expert in analyzing the material, but I have done good so far in predicting upcoming months in the market. You should always look at the data, and if you don't understand something then verify with more than one source. My prediction is just that, a prediction. Sometimes we don't see certain things coming, but looking at the statistics can help you adapt your marketing strategy or area of interests. I will always give you my best opinion, but it always has the potential for error or mistakes.

Free information is great, take it all with a grain of salt. The only way to be the most accurate is to stay informed and seek professional advice from multiple sources when navigating the ever-evolving real estate market.

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